Tension, uncertainty as NCAA, operators, oil marketers meet today over jet A1 scarcity, high cost

The jet fuel crisis has reached a boiling point, leaving Nigerian aviation in a state of high-tension uncertainty.

While the industry narrowly avoided a total nationwide shutdown on Monday, the scarcity bite is translating into widespread flight cancellations and a crippled domestic schedule.

All eyes are on today, when airlines under the aegis of the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON), fuel marketers, and government regulators will meet in Abuja to find a sustainable solution.

Despite the suspension of strikes, passengers across Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt, Kano, and other destinations are reporting mass cancellations and multi-hour delays. Airlines are not striking, but many simply cannot source enough fuel to maintain their full schedules.

The 2026 conflict involving the US and Iran has triggered a seismic shift in global aviation, with Nigeria emerging as one of the most acutely affected markets.

The crisis centres on the Strait of Hormuz, where disruptions have throttled 20% of the world’s oil supply and nearly 25% of refined product flows, including Jet A1.

Nigeria’s aviation industry is not immune, as the domestic aviation sector has been seriously affected, with airlines in dire straits over the astronomical cost of jet fuel, which they say has risen from N900 per litre to N3300, pushing the sector to the brink of collapse.

In less than two months, the price of Jet A1 in Nigeria has skyrocketed from ₦900 per litre in February to roughly ₦3,300 per litre in April—a jump of over 260%.

The spokesman for airline operators, Prof. Obiora Okonkwo, lamented that fuel now accounts for over 35% of airline revenue in Nigeria, adding that operators are struggling with “forex volatility,” making it nearly impossible to pay for imported refined fuel.

Okonkwo, who is also the Chairman of United  Nigeria Airlines, warned that for tickets to reflect the true cost of fuel, prices would have to rise to levels the average Nigerian passenger cannot afford, leading to ghost flights with empty seats.

Fuel is the second-largest cost for airlines, just behind labour. A single-aisle commercial jet burns roughly 800 gallons of jet fuel an hour. Wide-bodies generally burn even more.

The carriers are demanding liquidity relief and an end to service providers’ upfront payment requirements to keep planes in the sky.

International airlines are also facing a fuel crisis. The conflict has fundamentally altered international air travel through supply shortages and skyrocketing operational risks.

While crude oil rose by 35%, global jet fuel prices have doubled due to disruptions in refined product flows from Middle Eastern hubs.

In just the first two weeks of conflict, regional airlines lost roughly $1.9 billion; total losses have now exceeded $3 billion.

Experts who spoke with Aviation Metric were of the view that Nigeria is uniquely vulnerable, with the crisis exposing deep structural weaknesses in the West African aviation supply chain.

Despite being an oil producer, Nigeria, they said, remains heavily reliant on imported refined Jet A1.

To them, the Dangote Refinery, while operational, reportedly made no domestic jet fuel deliveries in March 2026, forcing a continued reliance on high-cost imports.

One of the operators who pleaded anonymity highlighted that one of the most frustrating aspects for the local industry is that while Nigerian airlines are grounding planes, the Dangote Refinery has reportedly been exporting significant volumes (approx. 66,000 bpd) to Europe to help shore up their dwindling supplies.

Industry stakeholders are now calling for a “domestic supply obligation” to ensure local carriers are prioritised during this conflict.

The crisis in the Middle East has also taken a toll on the global aviation industry, as airlines in Europe and Asia, many of which depend on imported jet fuel, now face a potential shortage, raising the odds of flight cancellations and schedule cuts.

The US is in no immediate danger of running out of jet fuel, but the global shortage is driving up fuel prices for US carriers. They are cutting back on cheap airfares and less profitable flights, a move that’s likely to drive up airfares for US travellers, particularly in the summer months.

Consequently, KLM cancelled more than 150 European flights due to rising jet fuel costs.

The Dutch airline will not operate 80 return flights out of Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport over the next month.

The flights are “currently no longer financially viable to operate” due to rising kerosene costs, said KLM.

The four largest US airlines – United, American, Delta and Southwest — spent about $100 million a day on average on fuel last year.

Those costs have increased dramatically since the war began. Delta last week said it could spend an additional $2 billion on fuel this year, even though it owns its own refinery.

United said it could spend an extra $11 billion on fuel this year if things stay as they are, United CEO Scott Kirby told employees in March.

Wole Shadare