Is jumbo jet era coming to an end?
The era of super jumbo jets seems to be coming to an end. WOLE SHADARE x-rays factors that have led to a shift for smaller, twin-engine planes
The era of jumbo jets seems to be coming to an end. This is due to many factors, which has made airlines to go for wide-body airplanes but not definitely the B747, which ruled the skies for over five decades and the super jumbo A380, considered to be the biggest commercial jet plane in the world with capacity to carry over 800 passengers and more depending on its configuration.
In 2005, Airbus introduced the double-deck A380-800 — perhaps the most capable rival the Boeing jumbo jet had ever encountered.
Save for a very few seen at airports across the world, the B747 is fast disappearing. Even British Airways, which was very successful with the airplane on Lagos route for over two decades, has changed to smaller, and more efficient equipment. This may also not be unconnected with fuel guzzling four engine aircraft.
Glory days
Since its introduction in 1969, Boeing 747 has transformed the way people travel. With its ability to fly 500 passengers over 6,000 miles, the jumbo jet allowed airlines to reach new destination while achieving profitability by lowering the per-seat cost of operation. The 747 has also lost sales to its corporate siblings — the 777 “mini-jumbo and the 787 Dreamliner.
But these days Boeing and Airbus are having a hard time finding new buyers for both aircraft. The cost of purchasing such a large aircraft, combined with the fact that they’re relatively energy inefficient, makes them impractical.
The Airbus A340 ended production in 2011 after selling less than 400 jets. In 2014, Airbus chief financial officer Harald Wilhelm raised the prospect of ending production of the A380, causing consternation among its customers.
One reason the plane has not sold as had been hoped is that many carriers worry that they would not be able to fill the A380 on many routes.
Not a few agreed that to admit defeat and to close down the A380 production line at this stage would be a huge loss of face for Airbus.
Dwindling demand
Demand for the big jets has also dwindled as aviation regulations changed, airlines moved away from the hub-and-spoke model for their routes, and as jet-engine technology improved — making it safer for aircraft to fly long distances with just two engines.
Statistics made available to New Telegraph shows that in the last eight years, Boeing sold just 48 jumbos — the majority of which are to be deployed as heavy freighters, and earlier this year, Boeing announced it will be cutting back B747 production to just one per year. Airbus has not won an airline order for the double-decker jet since it sold Emirates a batch four years ago.
A chief Executive of one of the Gulf carriers recently said, “We are done. We just believe in two-engine technology. They are much more efficient, “he said unequivocal when asked if the group would buy another four engine aircraft.
Long-distance and transoceanic flights were traditionally exclusively covered by the 747 and its fellow three- or four-engine, wide-body jumbos because, when it comes to the engine count on an airliner, the thinking was that there is safety in numbers.
The great shift
But as modern turbofan engines became more reliable, and engine failures far less common, the thinking, and the regulations changed. As a result, most airlines have turned to twin-engine mini-jumbos that are more fuel efficient.
Basically, the improvement on twin-engine planes is consigning the jumbo jets to their end. They are able to fly farther and were more fuel-efficient than their four-engined competitors. Recently, high oil prices and the global economic downturn have hit the industry hard.
Many carriers went out of business and those that survived found their profitability was marginal. The industry is still grappling with the after-effects of the recession.
Furthermore, airlines are moving away from the “hub and spoke” business model that calls for massive numbers of the passengers to be routed through a single mega-hub.
Smaller, fuel-efficient jets such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner allow airlines to offer passengers nonstop, point-to-point service without transiting through a hub.
Too big, too thirsty’
In 2015 when the chief executive of Emirates, Tim Clark, who is one of the A380’s biggest fans ordered 140 of them, he said, “There is a degree of risk-averseness on the board of many carriers today.
“They are concerned about the price of this aeroplane, its operation, being able to fill the aeroplane.”
The main use for the A380 is on busy routes or into crowded airports like London’s Heathrow where landing slots are at a premium, and the only way of flying in more passengers is to use bigger planes.
However, for most of the world’s airports, landing slots are not an issue.
“In the rest of the world, a twin-engine aircraft is enough,” says Tom Whitty, chief executive of UK-based remarketing company Cabot Aviation, which sells and leases second-hand aircraft around the globe.
“Very large four-engine aircraft are going out of fashion, unless you are a national flag-carrier like British Airways or Emirates.
“Certainly in the used-market, they are too big and too thirsty in fuel.”
Future questioned
One of the challenges is the time it takes to get an aircraft from the drawing board to an airport departure gate.
It was back in 1990 at the Farnborough Air Show that Airbus officially announced its plan to build a very large airliner.
But it was only in April 2005 that the prototype A380 first flew and not until October 2007 that the first production models entered commercial service with Singapore Airlines.
The time lag between initial development and commercial use means firms such as Boeing or Airbus have to work out what the market will be like in 20 or so years, with all the inevitable uncertainty that it brings.
Last line
While both companies have order backlogs that will sustain production for a few years, they both face tough choices if new orders do not come through.
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