Airbus forecasts 1,640 new passenger aircraft for Africa by 2045 as traffic triples

Africa will require 1,640 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years, according to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF 2026), as demographic expansion, economic growth, trade and tourism continue to drive demand for air connectivity across the continent.

The forecast includes demand for 1,310 single-aisle and 330 wide-body aircraft by 2045. The outlook reflects the significant long-term potential of Africa’s aviation market.

Passenger traffic to, from, and within Africa is expected to almost triple over the next 20 years, growing at a 4.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and making it the world’s second-fastest-growing aviation market after Asia.

Looking more closely at the African market, Ethiopia is expected to see one of the strongest aviation growth rates, with origin-and-destination passenger traffic forecast to increase almost sixfold between 2025 and 2045.

“Aviation is one of the most powerful catalysts for Africa’s broader economic development,” said Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus in Africa and the Middle East. “

As we look toward a future of unprecedented passenger growth, building a strong, collaborative aviation ecosystem will seamlessly connect communities, accelerate regional trade, and unlock new avenues of shared prosperity across Ethiopia and the whole continent.”

Growth will be supported by strong demographic and economic fundamentals. Africa’s population is expected to grow by 720 million to over two billion by 2045, while its middle class will grow by 180 million and its urban population by 450 million, or 47% of the overall population.

Over 2025-2045, real GDP and real trade are forecast to grow at CAGRs of 4.0% and 3.9%, respectively, further supporting long-term demand for connectivity and air travel.

The propensity to travel is expected to rise significantly across major African markets. By 2045, yearly trips per capita are forecast to surge by 150% in Ethiopia and increase by 100% in both Nigeria and South Africa. These large percentage increases translate into millions of additional passengers each year.

Reflecting this growth potential and expanding connectivity, overall air capacity to, from, and within the continent has more than doubled between 2005 and 2025.

Tourism and trade will remain important enablers of Africa’s aviation growth. Greater visa openness, expanding fifth-freedom connectivity and trade integration are supporting passenger travel across the continent.

Implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and continued investment in regional and airport infrastructure could strengthen intra-African trade and connectivity while improving access to remote tourism destinations.

Africa is also accelerating the transition to the latest-generation aircraft, which are expected to make up 65% of the region’s fleet by 2035, up from 30% in 2025.

This fleet modernisation will help boost efficiency and support the long-term sustainability of Africa’s aviation sector.

Wole Shadare