Lagos-Accra route: Market cannibalisation

The saturation of the Lagos-Accra air route, where multiple Nigerian and regional carriers are competing, carries significant implications, primarily involving financial risk for the airlines and volatile benefits for passengers, writes WOLE SHADARE

The wait is finally over as United Nigeria Airlines announces the commencement of direct flights to Accra, Ghana, beginning November 10, 2025. The commencement of the Accra route by the airline, no doubt, would serve as an important part of the airline’s regional growth plan. This marks its first operation outside Nigeria, and the carrier is truly excited about it.

From the look of things, United Nigeria Airlines would deploy its arsenals, which include low fare, comfort, friendly in–flight service, and on-time departure to attract passengers to it. The beginning of the Accra route by United Airlines helps to bring stiff competition to the route, which is also serviced by Ibom Air, ValueJet, XEJET, Air Peace, Asky and Africa World Airlines.

While some analysts view the route to be ‘highly lucrative’, often considered almost “domestic” due to the short distance and frequent travel for business and leisure, the oversupply of available seats on the route helps to depress the market, coupled with shrinking economic activity in Nigeria.

Accra as a regional first step for Nigerian carriers

Launching the Accra route is often the first step for Nigerian airlines in their broader strategy to connect West and Central Africa.

The presence of many Nigerian airlines flying to Accra, Ghana, has several significant implications, primarily revolving around competition, passenger benefits, market saturation, and regional connectivity. Although the saturation of the route by Nigerian airlines is not a recent event but a recurring pattern, experts consistently warn that the market is at or near saturation, making it extremely precarious for sustained profitability.

The entry of United Nigeria Airlines signals an imminent increase in capacity, which strongly suggests the route is entering a phase of renewed saturation. Aviation experts and industry insiders consistently point to several factors that make the saturation of the Accra route a dangerous prospect.

While the Nigeria-Ghana corridor is the busiest air link in West Africa, the actual market size is finite. When too many airlines— especially those using larger aircraft—compete, the overall passenger load factor per flight drops, threatening profitability.

Market collapse Recall that a surge of Nigerian airlines (Arik, Medview, Dana, Aero) on the route in 2014/2015 led to market collapse and their eventual exit or demise. The new wave of entrants risks repeating this pattern because the route is burdened by high dollar-denominated charges from both Nigerian and Ghanaian authorities. Analysts said in a saturated market, airlines must absorb these costs to keep prices competitive, further squeezing their profit margins.

Accra’s Kotoka International Airport (ACC) is a strategic transit point, which many Nigerians use to fly internationally due to lower foreign airline ticket costs compared to Lagos. However, this transit demand is sensitive to ticket price fluctuations on the Lagos-Accra leg itself. In essence, while the market is lucrative enough to attract new entrants, it has historically proven too small to sustain all of them profitably, particularly when faced with Nigeria’s severe foreign exchange challenges and the use of excess capacity.

The route has a history of brutal rivalry, with some Nigerian airlines entering the market only to eventually cease operations or pull out, highlighting the tough nature of the competition.

Going down memory lane

Nigeria Airways had a troubled and erratic time during its 56-year history. In 2003, a new airline, named Transatlantic Airlines, operated for a few weeks before it collapsed, leaving hundreds stranded. Next, the joint venture attempted by Virgin, resulting in the creation of Virgin Nigeria, also had a brief and colourful life before Virgin divested itself of the association. The remnant operated domestic and regional routes as Air Nigeria. Bellview Airlines had a similar poor track record. Founded in 1992, it finally disappeared in 2009. The owners then began a new carrier called FirstNation Airways.

Both nations have a repetitive tale of failure in aviation. With the eyeing of this route, first by Ibom Air two years ago, competition became keen as it ate into the traffic of AWA, ASKY, and Air Peace. Now that ValueJet recently joined and now, United Airlines, competition would be keener.

Of the lot, only ASKY is really profitable, having declared a $2 million profit a couple of years ago for the first time in five years of operation. But ASKY is partly owned and operated by Ethiopian Airlines out of Lome, Togo.

The other airline making a difference is Ghanaian Airlines, Africa World Airlines (AWA), but that is also partly owned by Chinese giants HNA. Air Côte d’Ivoire also has international interests in Air France. At a point, the lucrative Accra-Lagos route with about 10 daily flights collapsed, leaving only AWA and Arik as survivors.

Again, before now, four of Nigeria’s notable airlines, Arik Air, Aero Contractors, Med-View Airlines, and Dana enjoyed a good run within the sub-region operating daily scheduled and chartered flights to countries like Ghana, Togo, The Gambia, Benin Republic, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Cameroon and even as far as Sao Tome and Principe.

Experts’ views

Chief Executive of Belujane Konsult and a former General Manager of defunct Nigeria Airways, Mr Chris Azu Aligbe, described the saturation of the Accra route by Nigerian carriers as healthy for passengers but unhealthy for the airlines, adding that the seat capacity is almost twice the number of available passengers.

“When you consider that Africa World Airlines (AWA) has been formidable with almost 92% schedule integrity. Sometime ago, Ibom Air had almost the same level of schedule integrity. I don’t know what it is because I have not followed up. I think their schedule integrity has not reached that level. I do not think the Nigerian carriers have that level of schedule integrity. Some of them are not going daily. If you are not going to a route, you lose passengers because some go and come back tomorrow, and you will lose out on those passengers.

“That is where AWA is ahead of them because they operate almost three frequencies or more a day to Abuja and Lagos, and that puts them in a better stead. I use AWA as an example. Some of our people are using other countries’ airlines, leaving our own. You are in the public space, and we are talking about operations. You can only compare airlines on that route. If you look at it, AWA also has alliances. It doesn’t fly only Lagos-AccraLagos. AWA goes to eight other destinations in Accra, Takoradi, Tamale, and other places.

“Our airlines don’t do that. Those who are coming from that place cannot be passengers for our airlines. Many things are considered, and why AWA will be ahead of our airlines, like schedule integrity, more destinations in Accra, and destinations outside Accra with their alliance partners, and they are big alliance partners. You have BA, Emirates, all of them. Look at what the Ghana Airport Company did by arranging with Ethiopian Airlines to operate London from Kumasi. That takes some of our passengers away because that flight will be cheaper.

“These are factors that affect the volume of passengers. Again, we don’t have alliances. If our airlines have alliances, I can say,  I will take you there because I am not going until next tomorrow and an interline arrangement with Airline B will fly you back. That is normal in the industry, but they have not been able to do that, and again, many of them that are flying point to point, it is not helping because there is no alliance, and you are flying point to point. When we flew back then, Nigeria Airways was dominant on the West African route.

“There was Ghana Airways, Air Afrique, Nigeria Airways, was Accra, Freetown, AccraBanjul, but today, there are people flying point to point. That does not help at all. When you tell them, they think you are criticising them. We are all in public space because once you offer service, you are in public space for scrutiny and to be told whether you are doing well or not. People must be ready to be told that,” he said.

A former Rector, Nigerian College of Aviation Technology (NCAT), Capt. Samuel Caulcrick, simply described what is happening as “over-saturation and this kills competition”.

Last line
The survival of Nigerian airlines on this route depends on their ability to avoid the pitfalls of the past by ensuring schedule reliability, using the right-sized aircraft, and maintaining rigorous cost control.

Wole Shadare