Iran/Israeli Crossfire: Triggering ricochet effect in airlines’ boardrooms

The war’s ricochet effect is being felt in boardrooms from Atlanta to Tokyo, from the Gulf Region to Africa.  Jet fuel prices have surged by 8% in 48 hours, and global cargo supply chains, already strained, are bracing for a massive backlog of high-value electronics and perishables usually moved through Gulf hubs, writes WOLE SHADARE

For decades, the midnight rush at Dubai International Airport (DXB) was the heartbeat of global travel—a synchronised ballet of A380S ferrying thousands of passengers between London, Sydney, Mumbai, and New York.

But on March 1, the world’s busiest international hub fell into an eerie, unprecedented silence.

The pulse of global aviation has effectively flatlined following a weekend of transformative violence. What began on Saturday, February 28, as a massive joint military operation by the United States and Israel—codenamed “Operation Epic Fury” and “Operation Genesis”—has spiralled into the most severe aviation crisis since the 2020 pandemic.

The strikes, which targeted military infrastructure, air defences, and senior leadership across Iran, triggered an immediate and ferocious retaliatory wave from Tehran. Within hours, the “Silk Road of the Skies”—the critical corridors over the Persian Gulf—became a combat zone.

Region under lock and key

As of today, the airspace over Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar remains entirely closed. Major transit hubs, including Dubai (DXB), Hamad International (DOH), and Zayed International (AUH), have suspended most operations after reports of drone and missile impacts near civilian facilities.

It isn’t just a regional delay; it’s a systemic collapse of the East-West bridge,” says aviation analyst Sarah Thorne.

“With Russian airspace already closed due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and now the Middle East offline, airlines are running out of ways to get from Europe to Asia.”

The cost of the long way around

For passengers, the crisis is measured in stranded hours and cancelled dreams. For airlines, it is measured in fuel and survival.

Rerouting a single long-haul flight to avoid the Middle East adds roughly 90 to 120 minutes of flight time, costing carriers an estimated $10,000 extra per flight in fuel and crew wages.

At Terminal 3 in Dubai, the “Golden Hour” of connections turned into a “Weekend of Limbo.” Thousands of travellers were seen sleeping on benches, their phones glowing with “Cancelled” notifications.

“We were supposed to be in Singapore for my daughter’s wedding,” says Marcus Chen, a passenger diverted from a London-Doha flight. “Now we’re told the airspace is a ‘no-fly zone’ until further notice. We can hear the sirens from the city; no one wants to be in the air right now anyway.”

Insurance “war risk” premiums for flights into or near the Persian Gulf have skyrocketed, making it financially impossible for many smaller carriers to operate in the region.

Reports from the ground confirm that minor damage was sustained at Dubai International and Kuwait International during Iranian retaliatory strikes. While airport casualties remain low, the psychological impact on the industry is significant.

Over $1 billion in estimated losses

Aviation economists warn that if the Strait of Hormuz remains contested and Gulf airspaces stay dark, the industry could face losses exceeding $1 billion per week.

For now, the world’s airlines are playing a high-stakes game of “wait and see,” watching the horizon for the next plume of smoke.

Before this weekend, Iran’s airspace alone handled roughly 1,400 daily overflights, generating over $2.5 million in daily revenue for Tehran. Today, that revenue is zero, and the global cost to airlines is skyrocketing.

Metric	Daily Impact (Estimated)
Cancelled/Delayed Flights	4,500+ across the Middle East and SE Asia
Additional Fuel Costs	$10,000 – $15,000 per long-haul flight
Lost Passenger Revenue	$350 million (Industry-wide)
Stranded Passengers	300,000+ globally

Airlines are now forced into desperate, fuel-heavy detours. Flights between Europe and Southeast Asia, once reliant on the Persian Gulf corridor, are rerouting north through the already-congested skies of Turkey and Central Asia, or south around the Horn of Africa.

Lufthansa and Air France have reported that avoiding the conflict zone adds 90 to 120 minutes to every flight.

Air India, a major player in the Gulf, has suspended all Middle Eastern operations, leaving thousands of migrant workers and tourists in limbo.

Emirates and Qatar Airways, the titans of long-haul transit, have seen their hub-and-spoke models break. Without the ability to land safely in Doha or Qatar, aircraft are being diverted to Athens, Istanbul, and Cairo.

“We are looking at the largest disruption to global air transport since the 2020 pandemic,” says John Strickland, a London-based aviation analyst. “But unlike a pandemic, you can’t vaccinate against a missile. This is about physical safety and the total loss of hull-risk insurance in the region.

Collateral damage at the gate

The financial haemorrhage is not limited to ticket sales. Dubai International, which processed a record 324,000 passengers on a single day just two months ago, is facing a multi-billion-dollar vacuum.

“When the flow stops, everything stops,” says a terminal manager at DXB, speaking on condition of anonymity.

 “The duty-free shops, the airport charges, the cargo logistics—it’s a ghost town. We are losing tens of millions of dollars every twelve hours.”

Retaliatory strikes have caused confirmed structural damage to civilian aviation infrastructure in Kuwait and Abu Dhabi, further complicating any “quick” restart of operations.

For many carriers, the risk of a “shoot-down” scenario—reminiscent of MH17 or PS752—has made the Middle Eastern skies radioactive for the foreseeable future.

Last line

For the global aviation industry, which was forecast to record $41 billion in profits in 2026, the US-Iran war is a “black swan” event. While the Middle East was expected to lead the world in profitability this year, those projections are now being rewritten in red ink.

As the smoke clears over Tehran and the sirens continue in Dubai, the industry is no longer just calculating the cost of a weekend—it is bracing for a long-term restructuring of how the world flies.

For the traveller, the message is clear: the era of seamless, cheap global connectivity has hit a wall of fire.

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