IATA: Competition from European, Middle East carriers shrinks African carriers’ demand to 0.3%

The International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) latest analysis of the passenger air transport market, based on capacity (supply) and traffic (demand) data worldwide and by region for June 2025, indicated that African airlines experienced a 0.3% year-over-year decrease in demand. Capacity was up 0.3% year-on-year.

The load factor was 74.6% (-0.5 ppt compared to June 2024). The decline in African load factor, according to the clearing house for over 350 global airlines, may be due to increased competition from European and Middle Eastern carriers.

Taking a holistic look at the different markets, the Director-General of IATA, Willie Walsh, said, “In June, demand for air travel grew by 2.6%. That’s a slower pace than we have seen in previous months and reflects disruptions caused by the military conflict in the Middle East.

“With demand growth lagging the 3.4% capacity expansion, load factors dipped 0.6 percentage points from their all-time record-high levels. At 84.5% globally, however, load factors are still very strong. And with a modest 1.8% capacity growth visible in August schedules, load factors over the Northern summer are unlikely to stray far from their recent historic highs.”

Walsh stated that international RPK growth reached 3.2% in June year-on-year, but noted that load factor fell across all regions as capacity growth outstripped demand.

The steepest fall in RPK growth from May was in the Middle East, according to him, where international traffic contracted 0.4% year-on-year, impacted by military conflict.

On a region-by-region basis, Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 7.2% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 7.5% year-on-year, and the load factor was 82.9% (-0.2 ppt compared to June 2024).

European carriers had a 2.8% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 3.3% year-on-year, and the load factor was 87.4% (-0.4 ppt compared to June 2024).

North American carriers saw a 0.3% year-on-year fall in demand. Capacity increased 2.2% year-on-year, and the load factor was 86.9% (-2.2 ppt compared to June 2024).

Middle Eastern carriers saw a 0.4% year-on-year decrease in demand. Capacity increased 1.1% year-on-year, and the load factor was 78.7% (-1.2 ppt compared to June 2024). Military conflict particularly impacted traffic on routes to North America (-7.0% year-on-year) and Europe (-4.4% year-on-year).

Latin American airlines saw a 9.3% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 11.8% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.3% (-1.9 ppt compared to June 2024).

In a related development, June air cargo demand was up 0.8% despite disruption, according to IATA released data for June 2025 global air cargo markets showing, total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), rose by 0.8% compared to June 2024 levels (1.6% for international operations).

“Overall, air cargo demand grew by a modest 0.8% year-on-year in June, but there are very different stories behind that number for the industry’s major players. Trade tensions saw North American traffic fall by 8.3% and European growth stagnate at 0.8%. But Asia-Pacific bucked the trend to report a 9.0% expansion. Meanwhile, disruptions from military conflict in the Middle East saw the region’s cargo traffic fall by 3.2%,” said Walsh.

The June air cargo data, he said, made it very clear that stability and predictability are essential supports for trade.

“Emerging clarity on US tariffs allows businesses greater confidence in planning. But we cannot overlook the fact that the ‘deals’ being struck are resulting in significantly higher tariffs on goods imported into the US than we had just a few months ago. The economic damage of these cost barriers to trade remains to be seen. In the meantime, governments should redouble efforts to make trade facilitation simpler, faster, cheaper and more secure with digitalisation,” said Walsh.

Wole Shadare