Global fleet age hits 14.8 years as aircraft deliveries fall 26% below forecast

In a year where global passenger traffic has soared past pre-pandemic levels, airlines find themselves grounded by an unexpected adversary: the supply chain.

Despite a booming appetite for air travel and bullish industry growth projections, carriers worldwide are struggling to receive the aircraft they’ve ordered, resulting in a fleet age that has reached an all-time high of 14.8 years.

That statistic is more than an inconvenience for an industry driven by precision, fuel efficiency, and customer experience. It’s a red flag.

IATA’s Annual Review 2025 paints a stark picture. Just 1,266 aircraft were delivered in 2024—a decline of more than 8% year-on-year and well below pre-pandemic norms.

And while manufacturers like Airbus and Boeing have publicly forecast a rebound in deliveries for 2025, with a projected 1,692 aircraft expected, even that figure represents a sharp 26% drop from what was previously anticipated for this year.

The outlook has prompted IATA to issue a warning that airlines cannot wait until 2030 for production lines to normalise. The backlog is not just logistical—it’s financial, operational, and strategic.

Adding fuel to the fire is the growing crisis around aircraft engines. Engine-related groundings are now sidelining an unprecedented 3.8% of the global fleet under ten years old—nearly triple the pre-pandemic average.

In practical terms, this means hundreds of relatively young, fuel-efficient aircraft are sitting idle in hangars while demand soars and airline CFOs count the cost.

The grounding crisis has its roots in quality control issues, delayed maintenance cycles, and strained engine part supply chains—an unholy trio that has left operators scrambling for capacity.

The consequences are mounting. Carriers are turning to aging aircraft to plug the gap, but this stopgap solution comes with a heavy price.

Older jets burn more fuel, cost more to maintain, and require expensive retrofits if they are to meet current regulatory and sustainability standards. For an industry already committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, the reliance on an ageing fleet is a direct contradiction to its environmental ambitions.

Operationally, the knock-on effects are everywhere. Leasing costs have surged as airlines scramble to secure available aircraft.

Maintenance repair and overhaul (MRO) providers are under pressure as demand outpaces capacity. The cost of ownership is ballooning, with interest rates and lease prices spiking due to constrained supply and rising financial risk.

For low-cost carriers operating on thin margins, this environment is especially punishing. But even network carriers with strong balance sheets are feeling the pinch.

Nowhere is this more evident than in the Middle East. Gulf airlines, known for their expansive long-haul operations and premium offerings, are particularly sensitive to disruptions in fleet planning.

Major players like Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Qatar Airways have placed large orders for next-generation aircraft intended to reduce emissions and expand global reach.

Delays in these deliveries are not just inconvenient—they could stall network growth, affect product consistency, and force difficult choices on aircraft utilisation.

What’s clear is that airlines across the board are adjusting strategies. Some are accelerating retrofits and life extension programmes for older aircraft. Others are revisiting secondhand markets, previously considered a less attractive option.

Fleet planning timelines have become more fluid, and the traditional cycles of renewal and replacement have been thrown off course.

Even sustainability roadmaps are under revision as carriers weigh the cost of waiting for greener aircraft against the emissions from their existing ones.

Behind closed doors, pressure is mounting on aircraft manufacturers to do more. OEMs are facing scrutiny not only from airlines but also from regulators, lessors, and financial markets.

The pace of recovery in production rates, transparency around delays, and accountability for quality control issues will all be critical in the months ahead.

Airlines are demanding faster approvals, better spare parts availability, and clearer communication on realistic delivery schedules.

For its part, IATA has called for cross-industry collaboration to resolve the gridlock and warned that current timelines are incompatible with aviation’s growth and climate goals.

There is a sense of urgency building. With demand outpacing supply, load factors have reached a record 83.5%, according to IATA data.

That’s good news in the short term, but it’s also a fragile equilibrium. If aircraft don’t arrive when promised, the industry may face constraints that choke off growth, undermine service reliability, and erode public trust.

The situation is both a cautionary tale and a call to action. Airlines, OEMs, governments, and investors must work together to fix the underlying structural weaknesses exposed by this crisis.

Because while a passenger might not notice the difference between a nine-year-old aircraft and a brand-new one, the people who manage operations, finances, and sustainability targets certainly do.

Credit: Aviation Business

Wole Shadare