Dissecting Africa’s aviation resilience amid challenges

The 81st International Air Transport Association (IATA) Annual General Meeting in New Delhi, India may have come and gone, Africa’s aviation took the centre stage and came under scrutiny as the event highlights growth potential, opportunity and challenges, writes, WOLE SHADARE

 

Crossroads, challenges

Last week, the 81st International Air Transport Association (IATA) Annual General Meeting (AGM) press conference in New Delhi, India, highlighted key insights into the continent’s aviation landscape, revealing promising opportunities and formidable barriers.

With passenger demand rising and long-term projections forecasting traffic doubling by 2043, Africa’s aviation market holds immense promise. However, high costs, restrictive policies, and infrastructure gaps continue to hold back progress.

In summary, Africa’s aviation sector is at a crossroads, poised for significant growth yet grappling with persistent challenges that hinder its full potential.

Mixed grill

The continent’s aviation market has shown resilience in passenger demand, with a year-to-date increase of 9% from January to April 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, outpacing the global average. This growth underscores the continent’s potential as a vibrant aviation hub, driven by increasing economic activity and a growing middle class.

However, the cargo sector paints a less optimistic picture, with demand down 5.5% year-to-date, lagging behind global trends.

This decline highlights structural challenges, including limited cargo infrastructure and high operational costs that continue to impede Africa’s competitiveness in global trade.

Safety progress amid challenges

Safety remains a cornerstone of aviation, and Africa has made notable strides. The continent recorded a fatality risk rate of zero for the second consecutive year in 2024, a testament to ongoing efforts through initiatives like IATA’s Collaborative Aviation Safety Improvement Program (CASIP).

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However, the region reported 10 accidents in 2024, primarily runway excursions and landing gear issues, with 40% involving turboprop aircraft.

While the global accident rate rose slightly to 1.13 per million sectors in 2024 from 1.09 in 2023, IATA members in Africa maintained a lower rate of 0.90, reflecting the benefits of global standards and data-sharing. Continued investment in training, technology, and infrastructure is essential to sustain and build on these gains.

Bright Future for Passenger Growth

Africa’s aviation market is projected to more than double by 2043, reaching 345 million passengers annually, with an average growth rate of 3.7% over the next two decades.

This forecast reflects the continent’s demographic and economic potential, with rising urbanisation and trade integration driving demand.

Countries like Ethiopia and Rwanda have already capitalised on this trend, leveraging aviation as a strategic economic enabler.

Investments in Ethiopian Airlines and Addis Ababa Bole International Airport, as well as RwandAir and Kigali’s airport, have transformed these nations into regional hubs, boosting tourism, trade, and investment. Yet, unlocking this potential continent-wide requires addressing systemic barriers.

High Costs: A Persistent Barrier

Africa remains one of the most expensive regions for aviation operations. Fuel prices, which account for 40% of operating costs in Africa compared to 25% globally, are 17% higher than the world average. Taxes, fees, and air navigation charges are 12-15% and 10% higher, respectively, than in other regions.

Maintenance, insurance, and capital costs are also 6-10% more expensive. These high costs erode airline profitability and inflate fares, pricing out potential travellers. Additionally, blocked funds—amounting to $919 million, or 70% of the global total—pose a significant financial strain, limiting airlines’ ability to reinvest in growth.

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Structural and Policy Challenges

Beyond costs, Africa’s aviation sector faces structural and policy hurdles. Protectionist bilateral agreements restrict competition, limiting route availability and keeping fares high. Only 19% of intra-African routes offer direct flights, forcing passengers to endure longer, costlier journeys.

Small fleet sizes and limited route networks further constrain African airlines’ ability to achieve economies of scale.

The slow implementation of the African Union’s Yamoussoukro Decision (YD) and the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) exacerbates these issues, hindering market openness and connectivity.

Visa progress

Visa policies, however, show signs of progress. Four countries—Benin, The Gambia, Rwanda, and Seychelles—now offer visa-free entry to all African nationals, and 28% of intra-African travel scenarios are visa-free, up from 20% in 2016.

The expansion of e-visa systems to 44% of African countries by 2024 further facilitates travel. These developments are critical for boosting tourism and trade but require broader adoption to maximise impact.

Fleet/Supply Chain

The aircraft backlog exceeds 17,000 (sharply up from the 10,000-11,000 pre-pandemic), with an implied wait time of 14 years. Should states exit from a multilateral agreement, exempting aircraft from tariffs, supply chain constraints and production limitations could be further aggravated.

Supply chain issues have had significant negative impacts on airlines: driving-up leasing costs, increasing the average fleet age to 15 years (from 13 in 2015), cutting the fleet replacement rate to half the 5-6% of 2020, and reducing the efficiency of fleet utilization (using larger aircraft than needed on some routes, for example).

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In 2025, 1,692 aircraft are expected to be delivered. Although this would mark the highest level since 2018, it is almost 26% lower than year-ago estimates. Further downward revisions are likely, given that supply chain issues are expected to persist in 2025 and possibly to the end of the decade.

Engine problems and a shortage of spare parts exacerbate the situation and have caused record-high groundings of certain aircraft types.

The number of aircraft younger than 10 years in storage is currently more than 1,100, constituting 3.8% of the total fleet compared with 1.3% between 2015 and 2018. Nearly 70% of these grounded aircraft are equipped with PW1000G engines.

Manufacturers continue to let their airline customers down. Every airline is frustrated that these problems have persisted so long. And indications that it could take until the end of the decade to fix them are off-the-charts unacceptable.

Oil prices 

Oil prices are a major driver of airline profitability. The complex array of factors impacting oil prices (including economic growth projections, the amount of extraction activity undertaken, policies on decarbonization, sanctions, availability of refining capacity, and transport blockages) can produce quick shifts in pricing volatility with a significant impact on airline financial prospects.

Last line

It is not all gloom and doom for the continent’s aviation industry as cumulative airline profits will reach $36 billion this year, $600 million less than expected, IATA said.

Wole Shadare