COVID-19 EXPOSES THE BRITTLE BACKBONE OF THE NIGERIAN AVIATION INDUSTRY – ROLAND IYAYI (PART 1)

 

 
Background

Screaming headlines abound and for good reason too! Sometime in December 2019, a series of pneumonia-like cases were reported from an unknown virus in Wuhan city in Hubei province of China.

This virus, which following clinical investigations was traced to a new strain of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Coronavirus 2 and called the Coronavirus Disease 2019, otherwise known as COVID-19 (previously 2019-nCoV), leapt across international borders showing the high interdependence and high mobility of the global population.

It is touted to be highly infectious with its spreading exacerbated primarily by human-to-human transmission through droplets of saliva or discharge from the nose when an infected person coughs or sneezes.

So highly infectious that as at 15th May, 2020 it had recorded over 4.5 million cases with over 300,000 deaths globally, showing an average mortality rate of approximately 6.7% and had spread to well over 200 countries and territories on every continent.

As a result of its contagious nature, the World Health Organization (WHO), a specialized arm of the United Nations responsible for international public health on 11th March 2020 declared it a global pandemic, with no known vaccines to prevent infection or commercially available pharmaceutical remedial interventions for treatment at this time.

 

 

 History of World Pandemics & Remedial Initiatives

In the past century, the world has experienced four (4) major pandemics, depending on the metrics of defining what constitutes a pandemic. These include the Spanish flu of 1918 – 1919, HIV / AIDS since 1981 till date, Swine flu of 2009 – 2010 and finally the current Coronavirus pandemic, which started in 2019.

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Historically, pandemics have been known to have long lasting, defining and powerful after-effects, which ultimately present a complex problem.

Indeed the Covid-19 crisis has presented several governments and organizations with a major complex problem and dilemma. With no known treatment or available vaccines at this point, the dilemma had been what the best methodology for containment would be, total lockdown or life as normal with restrictive measures?

This setting is akin to the proverbial “between the rock and a hard place”. Do governments and organizations adopt draconian containment measures as done in China, which are damaging to their economic well being to avert the catastrophic experience of Italy? Or maintain a laissez-faire or cavalier attitude and risk the inevitable monumental human death toll? Either way, it is a toss up.

Surely the people will take precedence. Notwithstanding, the severe economic dislocation engendered by the COVID-19 pandemic is also extremely serious, and the responsive plan of action needs to be not only strategic, but also appropriate in the circumstance.

With no known cure, nation States have had to rely on unorthodox methods as containment measures, such as behavioural changes of the citizenry including amongst others, isolation of symptomatic individuals and physical distancing.

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We have been admonished by the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) to wash our hands ever so frequently with soap and water, improve personal hygiene, always wear protective face masks and gloves in public places, remotely working from home where possible, and ordered closure of schools and businesses.

All of these measures taken by the various governments and organizations in trying to contain the pandemic have been adopted principally because of the lack of knowledge of how and why this particular strain of the Coronavirus mutates or evolves, and have had to “figure things out as we go along” pretty much.

Moreover, experiences from past pandemics and the series of actions taken at the time considered effective have been more or less adopted, albeit with minor modifications designed to suit our present realities.

In Nigeria, upon the identification of the index case by the NCDC, the governments swung into action and introduced measures such as the graduated 5-week or extended lockdowns introduced by the governments in certain key States – Lagos, Ogun, the FCT, Kano and Kaduna, taking a cue from China where this all began.

The primary objective of these lockdowns was an attempt at “flattening the curve” of the pandemic, in which case the containment measures would have been deemed successful.

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However, the problem will be drawn out over a much longer period, with a resultant effect of exacerbating the hardships of the populace sans palliatives.

In the event of easing the lockdowns too early, there then exists the possibility of a second wave of infections and a spike in the rate of infections – there lies another dilemma!

COVID-19 & World Aviation Industry

No doubt the world’s socio-political, economic, religious and financial orders have been destabilized and restructured by the unrestrained outbreak of pandemic Covid-19 worldwide and certainly the world now faces a realignment of sorts in its aftermath.

The magnitude of the overall adverse economic impacts of this pandemic is yet unfolding, but early indications show major disruptions and crippling effects to even the most resilient of economies, with ominous signs and devastating consequences.

The hardest hits are the service sectors including travel, hospitality, tourism and aviation. The airlines as the arrowhead of the aviation industry are particularly worse off and in dire straits.

In the wake of this pandemic, several airlines worldwide have taken various steps to try mitigating its adverse impact in reaction to the unprecedented turbulence stirred up.

To be continued….

Wole Shadare