Can airlines survive with dwindling revenue?
Hard times
These are not the best of times for airlines particularly Nigeria carriers. The country is technically in recession. This has affected the revenue of virtually all the carriers amid sharp reduction in passenger traffic. Airline business is tough, unprofitable, and heavily regulated.
It is even more overregulated in Nigeria because of the aggregate differences between the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) regulations, and the adverse policies issued by the ministry of aviation.
Also, the quality of unknowledgeable players in the sector who keep ill-advising the government on how the industry should be guided would in no time lead to the death of the industry.
Rise in Jet A1 price
With aviation fuel spiralling at N170 per litre, passenger traffic going down fast as a result of the harsh economic reality, multiple charges by various aviation agencies, huge overhead cost, fewer aircraft availability, unfavourable operating environment and poor business model, the airlines are indeed in dire strait. An unstable currency is a precursor to airline failure.
Even in a stable economy, airline business is virtually unprofitable with very low return on investment.
Naira slump
A dollar, which now exchanges for about N300 and N375 per dollar at the official and parallel markets, for long, was pegged at $1 to N197 officially. Recently, the Nigerian economy had been hit by unprecedented financial instability.
First was the falling oil price, which resulted in reduced government income. The airline fares are quoted in US dollars and Nigerians pay the equivalent naira at the previous exchange rate of N197.
After the devaluation, the payment is now calculated at an exchange rate of N300. That is an enormous 45 per cent increase and the consequence is a huge reduction in travellers, as most people cannot afford air fares that are soaring.
The majority of schedule and unscheduled aircraft operators face unfavourable business climate followed by the government policies aimed at snuffing lives of the operators.
With terminal navigational and landing charges at a constant, it is needless to say that Nigeria is about the most expensive country in Africa to engage in airline business.
Travel seen as luxury in Nigeria
In Nigeria and in some other climes, air travel is seen as luxury rather than seen as driver of the economy. Airlines are basically catalyst of economic growth.
They enhance profitability of other businesses, but are, themselves, unprofitable. The Minister of State for Aviation, Hadi Sirika seems to be too slow in hitting the ground running.
He is too slow to react to situations that could help to reduce revenue that goes to the industry as a whole and does not properly give direction to the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) to tackle myriads of problems that stare stakeholders in the face.
Who rescues the sector?
It is very obvious that aviation needs somebody to galvanise the agencies to be proactive to their statutory functions.
The NCAA as presently constituted is in disarray, with serious in-fighting amongst some of the directors; an action that does not augur well for the oversight function of the authority.
The NCAA is a shadow of its former self, where professionalism held sway, where the training of inspectors and other key professionals was never compromised.
The NCAA of old motivated workers to give in their best but that seemed to have disappeared with just God being the only saving grace that has kept aircraft from falling from the sky.
It is not all doom and gloom as the Minister has helped to prevail on government to remove duty and Value Added Tax (VAT) on aircraft and spares parts brought into the country. Operators lauded this policy because of the enormous amount of money they would save.
Govt’s intervention
The government’s gesture was extended specifically to commercial aircraft operators and not private jet operators who are required to pay for luxury taxes. The clarification on the Zero Duty and VAT was contained in a letter dated June 20, 2016 and signed by the Nigeria Customs Service.
It stated: “I am directed to inform you that by virtue of the Federal Government 2013 Fiscal Policy measures, Ref No. BD.12237/S.1008/T/11 dated January 15, 2013, all commercial aircraft and its spare parts imported for use in Nigeria shall attract import duty rate of zero per cent (0 per cent) and zero per cent (0 per cent) VAT respectively.”
It would be recalled that the Federal Government had, aftermath of Dana Air crash four years ago, introduced zero duty policy on aircraft and spare parts.
The policy was not fully implemented as a former minister of aviation then (name withheld), allegedly favoured selected airlines close to the Ministry of Aviation. The action of the ex-minister also saw to the influx of private jet owners who took advantage of the policy to purchase jets without payment of duty.
But that is over now, as the exemption is only for commercial jet owners.
In Nigeria, the Boeing aircraft is the dominant, as virtually all carriers operate the aircraft type. A former Assistant Secretary General of Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON), Mohammed Tukur, welcomed the idea of full implementation of the policy, noting that it was partially implemented.
He noted that usually when airlines bring in their airplanes, they usually pay 10 per cent of the value of the equipment to Nigeria Customs and another five per cent as Value Added Tax (VAT), describing it as killing for airlines.
For the airlines to sustain their operations and to remain in business, they have adjusted air fares. This cushioning of the effect on their operations may not be the light at the end of the tunnel for them.
No respite despite fare adjustment
Even the adjustment in air fares from between N28, 000 and N32, 000 depending on the time of purchase of ticket is not the solution to the arresting the serious predicament the operators have found themselves.
The Managing Director of FirstNation Airways, Mr. Kayode Odukoya, said that even at N30, 000, the airlines in Nigeria are not charging the appropriate fares considering the devaluation of Naira, which he said amounts to just about $80 for an hour flight.
Comparing the situation to what is obtainable in Europe or in the United States where ticket on the go costs more than $200 for the same equidistance, Odukoya said the carriers are also wary of the tough economic situation people are currently battling.
Conclusion
Experts put the lifespan of Nigerian airlines at 10 years but with the environment getting tougher and businesses shrinking by the day, their life expectancy might actually be less than 10 years, as they now look up to the government to help ameliorate their burden.