African airlines cargo market dips 2.1%, 9.5% increase in travel demand

The International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) latest analysis of demand and capacity in the global air cargo market, based on year-on-year comparative traffic and capacity data for May 2025 vs May 2024, saw a 2.1% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo for African airlines

While African airlines saw a dip in air cargo traffic, the carriers increased their cargo capacity by 2.7% year-on-year, achieving a 42.2% Cargo Load Factor (percentage of capacity taken up by the market), accounting for 2.0% of the total global air cargo market

“Air cargo demand globally grew 2.2% in May. That is encouraging news, as a 10.7% drop in traffic on the Asia to North America trade lane illustrated the dampening effect of shifting US trade policies. Even as these policies evolve, already we can see the air cargo sector’s well-tested resilience helping shippers to accommodate supply chain needs to flexibly hold back, re-route or accelerate deliveries,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

May Regional Performance

Asia-Pacific airlines saw 8.3% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in May, the strongest growth of all regions. Capacity increased by 5.7% year-on-year.

North American carriers saw a -5.8% year-on-year decrease in growth for air cargo in May, the slowest growth of all regions. Capacity decreased by -3.2% year-on-year.

European carriers saw 1.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in May. Capacity increased 1.5% year-on-year.

Middle Eastern carriers saw a 3.6% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in May. Capacity increased by 4.2% year-on-year.

Latin American carriers saw a 3.1% year-on-year increase in demand growth for air cargo in May. Capacity increased 3.5% year-on-year.

African airlines saw a 2.1% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in May. Capacity increased by 2.7% year-on-year

Trade Lane Growth: A significant decrease in the Asia-North America trade lane was expected and realised as the effect of front-loading faded (moving goods to market in advance of tariffs coming into effect) and changes to the de-minimis exemption on small package shipments (particularly those associated with e-commerce) were enforced. As cargo flows reorganised, several route areas responded with surprising growth.

It is not all gloom and doom for the continent’s carriers. In another analysis, the carriers on a year-on-year comparative basis, during May 2025, African airlines saw a 9.5% year-on-year increase in demand.

They expanded capacity by 6.2%, achieved a 74.9% Passenger Load Factor (percentage of the capacity that was sold in the market). This was up +2.2 ppt compared to May 2024.

They recorded 15.9% growth on the Africa-Asia international corridor, which was the world’s fastest-growing international route in May 2025 and accounted for 2.2% of the total global passenger air travel market.

Air travel demand growth was uneven in May. Globally, the industry reported 5% growth with Asia-Pacific taking the lead at 9.4%. The outlier was North America, which reported a 0.5% decline, led by a 1.7% fall in the US domestic market. Severe disruptions in the Middle East in late June remind us that geopolitical instability remains a challenge in some regions, as airlines maintain safe operations with minimal passenger inconvenience.

“The impact of such instability on oil prices—which remained low throughout May—is also a critical factor to monitor. Importantly, consumer confidence appears to be strong with forward bookings for the peak Northern summer travel season, giving good reason for optimism,” said Walsh

Wole Shadare