Skies of Promise: The Struggle Amid Africa’s Aviation Paradox

Paradoxically, a continent with some of the world’s lowest per capita incomes also has the highest aviation operating costs, operational inefficiency, and safety concerns, among others, writes WOLE SHADARE

With a youth demographic boom, a burgeoning middle class, and economies eager to connect, Africa exhibits the fastest-growing demand for air travel globally. This promising development hints at boundless potential.

Yet, scratch beneath the surface, and a stark paradox emerges: for all its soaring ambition, African aviation remains stubbornly tethered to the ground, a sector of immense potential persistently undermined by operational realities.

Africa leads the world in traffic growth and long-term potential, yet consistently ranks at the bottom for profitability, safety, and operational efficiency.

As of late 2025, this gap has widened. While African airlines are experiencing record-breaking demand, the structural “friction” of doing business in Africa makes it the most expensive region in the world in which to operate a plane.

Africa’s passenger traffic is projected to hit 273 million by the end of 2025. Over the next 20 years, traffic is expected to quadruple.

Aviation already contributes approximately $75 billion to the region’s GDP and supports more than 8 million jobs.

With the world’s youngest population and a rapidly expanding middle class, the “propensity to fly” is increasing more quickly in Africa than in any other region.

Why engine stalls? 

Despite high demand, African airlines face the world’s thinnest margins.

As of late 2025, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and other industry bodies have highlighted a widening gap between surging demand and stagnant profitability.

The most striking element of the paradox is that high volume does not equal high value in the African market.

In 2025, Africa will be a global leader in growth. Passenger demand rose by 8.8%, and cargo volumes surged by 16.6%—the highest rate worldwide.

 Despite these numbers, African airlines earn only $1.20 to $1.30 in net profit per passenger. For comparison, the global average is $7.90, and airlines in the Middle East earn over $20 per passenger. Africa’s net profit margin for 2025 is a fragile 1.3%—the lowest of any global region.

 Expensive Skies

The continent has some of the world’s lowest GDP per capita yet the highest operating costs. It is effectively a high-cost service in a price-sensitive market.

 Jet fuel is 17% more expensive than the global average due to limited local refining and supply chain inefficiencies. Fuel can account for up to 40% of an African airline’s total costs.

 Taxes and airport fees are 12%–15% higher than global norms. In some markets, statutory levies can add $60 to $80 to a base fare of $100.

 Compounding this, the continent suffers from a severe shortage of modern Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) facilities.

Aircraft are often flown to Europe or the Middle East for heavy checks, creating logistical challenges and significant downtime.

African aircraft are, on average, five years older than the global norm. These older aircraft consume more fuel and require more frequent, more expensive maintenance.

Fragmentation

The Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) was designed to create an “Open Skies” for Africa. However, the paradox remains that it is often easier to fly from Africa to Europe than to a neighbouring African country.

Many governments still protect their small, state-owned “flag carriers” by restricting traffic rights to foreign competitors.

Sadly, only 19% of intra-African routes have direct flights. This forces travellers to transit through hubs such as Dubai or Paris to travel from one side of the continent to the other.

 Safety

Safety performance remains the “red flag” of the paradox. In 2025, the global average was 1.1 accidents per million flights, whereas Africa averaged 10.3 accidents per million flights.

While major carriers like Ethiopian and Royal Air Maroc have impeccable records, the regional average is dragged down by ageing infrastructure and inconsistent regulatory oversight in smaller markets.

Summary Table: The Paradox at a Glance

Factor	The “Potential” (Demand)	The “Performance” (Reality)
Passenger Demand	+8.8% (World Leader)	$1.20 profit per seat
Cargo Volume	+16.6% (World Leader)	High logistics/handling costs
Market Size	1.4 Billion People	2% Share of Global Traffic
Connectivity	54 Countries	81% of routes require a connection

IATA’s Vice President for Africa and the Middle East, Kamil Alawadhi, said, “Africa’s aviation potential is immense. With the third-fastest growth rate in the world over the next two decades, the continent could serve more than 400 million passengers annually by 2044.

He said there are encouraging steps—such as improved visa openness and the adoption of e-visas—that support greater mobility and integration.

“But turning potential into performance requires action. Governments must treat aviation as a catalyst for development, not a source of revenue,” he cautioned.

“With the right policy support, aviation can be a powerful driver of economic transformation across Africa,” said Al-Awadhi.

“Despite above-average demand, the financial outlook remains challenging. Of the $41 billion in global net profit forecast for 2026 (3.9 per cent margin), Al-Awadhi noted.

“Demand for air travel in Africa is rising faster than in many other parts of the world, but profitability is not keeping pace.

With margins of just 1.3 per cent, African airlines are capturing only a fraction of aviation’s economic value.

Addressing the barriers that constrain growth is essential to ensure the region’s traffic expansion also delivers financial strength,” said Al-Awadhi.

He said that 44 per cent of African countries offer e-visas, but these are not standardised.

“As always in Africa, unfortunately, they are all going their own way.”

“It is shocking to me that there is one part of Africa saying we need to increase interconnectivity; we want airlines to prosper because they bring people in; aviation contributes to GDP.

“And then you have the other entity squeezing everyone out of the airlines, adding charges, taxes, fees, levies, making it almost impossible for any aviation to grow in Africa…Some of these prices are ridiculous.

He mentioned, for example, charges in Tanzania of $48 for a one-way ticket or $96 for a return ticket, to meet a government security requirement unrelated to the airlines or the passengers.

The rest of the world might charge $3 or $4, and some countries don’t charge at all.

“So how do you want anything Tanzania to grow?” asked Al-Awadhi.

“It’s like having a Ferrari engine in a car with square wheels,” muses Prof. Dele Aiyenugba, a Lagos-based aviation economist. “The demand is phenomenal, but the infrastructure, policies, and costs are just grinding everything to a halt.”

Last line

Despite these formidable headwinds, there are compelling reasons for optimism. Ethiopian Airlines, Ethiopia’s state-owned carrier, stands as a beacon, consistently profitable and expanding its global footprint.

 Its success is rooted in a strategic hub model, aggressive route expansion, and strong government support that views aviation as a national economic driver.

Countries like Rwanda and Morocco are also making strides, investing in modern infrastructure and liberalising their skies to boost tourism and trade.

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