Report: Why Nigeria’s flying figure is abysmally low

Despite the 17,230,438.000 passenger traffic recorded in 2018, the passenger traffic figure is still considered very low; an indication that only very few Nigerians take to travel both domestically and internationally with a population of about 200 million people.

This is an increase from the previous number of 14,319,876.000 passenger traffic for 2017.  Airport data is updated yearly, averaging 14,049,233.500 people from December 2003 to 2018, with observations. The data reached an all-time high of 17,230,438.000 Person in 2018 and a record low of 7,155,035.000 Person in 2003.

During the 2008–2017 period, 139 million passengers flew through Nigeria’s airports, 100 million of these were domestic passengers, while the rest were International passengers. Domestic passengers formed over 70 per cent of passenger traffic during the period. Growth in domestic passenger traffic ranged from −14 per cent in 2017, to as high as 39 per cent in 2008.

Growth trend was mixed during the decade, recording negatives in 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2017. There was a major crash in the domestic sector in 2012 which dampened demand in the ensuing months. 2015–2017 were years of economic slowdown.

The first signs of recovery occurred in late 2017 from an economic recession, which reached a bottom out point in 2016.

These among other factors were responsible for declines in passenger traffic in various years.

Aviation security consultant and a member of Aviation Round Table (ART), Group Capt. John Ojikutu (Rtd) said the economic situation makes it difficult for people to travel by air.

Ojikutu disclosed that same number of people travel year round leading to abysmal 17 million passenger traffic recorded in 2018, stressing that as long as the economy remains where it is, many Nigerians will have low propensity to travel by air.

Another aviation expert and a concessionaire in the aviation industry, Mr. Tunde Fagbemi disclosed that Nigeria has the lowest propensity to fly among all countries.

His words: “This story is a paradox of sorts, given that the geography as well as the demographic profile in Nigeria favours air travel. The country has a working population of over 73 million, which, in addition to the fact there are substantial inter-city distances, should favour propensity to travel by air.

“The low GDP per capita probably provides some explanation for low PTF, but again, Pakistan has a lower GDP per capita and still manages to record a higher PTF than Nigeria. The number of active domestic airlines is also lower in Nigeria than in other countries, again indicating the low level of demand for air travel.”

Illustrating his view, Fagbemi stated that air fares are observed to be on the high side, stressing that the most trafficked route in the network, Lagos-Abuja has an average fare of N30, 000 per passenger flight hour.

“This translates to about $83.3 at the current rate; meanwhile, flights on Boeing 737–700 series in western countries offer $33.33 per passenger flight hour. In Africa generally, infrastructure services are observed to be twice as expensive as elsewhere. This is not peculiar to air transport; power, water, road freight, mobile telephones and internet services also mirror the same trend”, he added.

Customer confidence in Nigerian airlines, according to him is another reason air travel demand is deemed low.

To him, the aircraft stock shows that the average fleet age is about 20 years. This contrasts sharply with fleet age for Africa’s best airlines—Ethiopia airlines for example is said to have an average fleet age of five years.

Fagbemi noted that increased demand for air travel and improved air transport operations need to be engineered in Nigeria, noting that while the demographics and geography are highly favourable for air travel, the prohibitive costs of air travel exclude several potential consumers of the service.

He further stated that the high cost of air travel is traced to supply side costs of operations, maintenance, taxes and other regulatory charges.

He added that Nigeria’s propensity to fly would increase higher revenue passenger kilometres and would in turn help air transport to contribute more significantly to transport output in the nation’s economy.

Wole Shadare