Passenger traffic to hit 32m by 2036
There are indications that Nigeria’s passenger traffic could hit 32 million by 2036 if the country maintains the momentum between now and that period,Woleshadare.net has learnt.
This figure is part of the projection of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) that it expects 7.8 billion passengers to travel in 2036, a near doubling of the four billion air travellers expected to fly this year.
The Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had put both domestic and international passenger traffic for 2016 at 15.6 million, which many consider too small for a population of approximately 170 million.
The expected growth would put enormous pressure on infrastructure that is already struggling to cope with demand, except something is done urgently.
According to the clearing house for over 280 global carriers, in 2016 there were a staggering 3.8 billion air travellers, a number it predicts will balloon to 7.8 billion passengers by 2036 – a near doubling of current levels.
The forecast is based on a 3.6 per cent average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) stated in the release of the latest update to the association’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast.
Nigerians are said to be very mobile people. As people continue to migrate to cities for economic opportunity, the middle class will expand, thereby affording more people income to travel.
Rising Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and consequently, disposable income and living standards result in an increased demand for air travel for both business and leisure purposes. Although living standards is one of the most important determinants of the number of enplaned passengers, it is important only until a point.
A travel expert, who pleaded anonymity, said the implication is that Nigeria’s aviation industry could also reach between 31 million and 32 million in the next 13 years. He said the country needs to urgently develop and implement short, medium and long term plans in order to partake in the projected huge global traffic.
His words, “All indicators lead to growing demand for global connectivity. Nigeria and the world need to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It’s fantastic news for innovation and prosperity, which is driven by air links. It is also a huge challenge for governments and the industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand.”
He noted that the objective of the global air navigation plan is to provide a framework for the harmonisation of services and procedures, and enhancement of global interoperability of systems and data, in order to ensure a safe, secure, efficient, economic and seamless global Automated Teller Machine (ATM) system that is environmentally sustainable.
He stated that great expectations are placed on the outcome of the forum considering the high level participation of CEO’s and executive directors from all the major stakeholder agencies who are responsible for not only air navigation planning but more importantly its implementation.
On the global stage, IATA stated that the biggest driver of demand will be the Asia-Pacific region, stressing that the region would be the source of more than half the new passengers over the next two decades.
China is now the first trillion-dollar aviation market in our forecast. The point at which China will displace the United States as the world’s largest aviation market (defined as traffic to, from and within the country), the group said has moved two years closer since last year’s forecast.
“We now anticipate this will occur around 2022, through a combination of slightly faster Chinese growth and slightly reduced growth in the US,” it added. “The UK will fall to fifth place, surpassed by India in 2025, and Indonesia in 2030. Thailand and Turkey will enter the top ten largest markets, while France and Italy will fall in the rankings to 11th and 12th respectively.”
Asia is home to nine of the world’s 10 most popular flights, and while air travel is booming around the world, it’s expected to soar exponentially in the region. That brings both unprecedented opportunities and challenges, and how airlines, aircraft manufacturers, and governments tackle them will change how the world flies.
The growth will generate countless new routes and require hundreds of new airports and thousands of new planes and pilots.
Such a dramatic increase in flight would also be accompanied by a surge in greenhouse gases linked to climate change, so the industry is doubling down on efforts to improve fuel efficiency and curb emissions.
While the proportion of middle-income households compared to the overall population in these nations is much smaller than those found in more mature economies, the absolute numbers are still enormous. The upsurge in middle-class households in major nations such as China and India in particular is “pulling people into air travel,” says IATA’s David Oxley
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