Nigeria has become the butt of jokes for her inability to position the aviation industry and for failing to capitalise on the different Bilateral Air Services Agreements (BASA) it has with many countries.

Many are of the opinion that what is the use of signing so many BASA’s without plans to activate the pact? Perhaps, the government did it with the hope that sooner than later, airlines from the country would decide to fly to the destinations, which agreements had been signed. This underscores the fact that the air transport system is still in the woods. From a few foreign carriers that were flying into Nigeria a few years ago, the number continues to increase by the day.

The global economic recession however, slowed the expansion of airlines, with some cutting down or closing routes, while few others reduced their frequencies. It is time for a high level meeting of all aviation industry stakeholders to review where we are as a country, where we should be and how we can get there.

A former Managing Director of an airline who preferred anonymity, said he would recommend that, “we sit down together and find practical ways to transform the Nigerian aviation industry.”

The recession has forced Emirates, which hitherto used to operate two flights daily into Lagos to cut it down to just one flight daily, reducing the frequencies to Lagos from Dubai to seven instead of the 14 it used to do. Others such as British Airways, Air France and others deployed smaller but same quality of services on the Nigerian routes but South African Airways recently added Abuja to its destination in Nigeria.

Ethiopian Airways is regarded rather sarcastically as Ethiopian Airways domestic airline in Nigeria because of the way it has spread its wings to Lagos, Abuja, Enugu and Kano. Not many know that Ethiopian has only activated the air liberalisation policy of Yamoussoukro Decision that liberalised air transport in Africa. Nigeria is a signatory to the pact that is fully yet to be complied with.

The need to enter into what is known as Africa’s type of ‘Open Skies’ was because of the cognisance of the continent’s population that is growing rapidly without effective and strong air links. The current high population growth rate began in the second half of the 20th century, when the number of people on the continent almost quadrupled from 230 million to 811 million. By 2010, this number reached one billion and if current demographic trends persist, Africa’s population will be 1.4 billion in 2025 and 1.9 billion by 2050.

The size and rate of expansion of a country’s population, its wealth and trade activity are all indicators of the level of aviation activity that might be expected. Cities with a large population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and high airline capacity (seats) may indicate a potential location for a viable hub.

Nevertheless, there are only a few significant hubs in Africa such as Johannesburg (with the largest level of connecting traffic) followed by Addis, Cairo, Casablanca and Nairobi. The low level of connectivity in West Africa is notable, reflecting the lack of hub airlines.

Two key treaties/decisions in Africa relating to liberalisation in the aviation market are the Yamoussoukro Decision (YD) and the ECOWAS Treaty. The objective of the former is the gradual liberalisation of scheduled and non-scheduled intra-African air transport services.

Of the 54 African states, 44 have signed and formally became parties to the YD and in theory, therefore, should have a liberalised air transport market in operation, both within and between them. In practice, however, this is not the case: the YD has not been implemented, or has only been partly implemented, and whilst it is cited on occasion in bilateral air service agreements, it is not, in practice, taken into account during negotiations for air traffic rights.

Experience in other countries shows liberalisation provides opportunities for airlines and benefits for consumers, resulting in passenger growth.

Unfortunately, while the continent’s carriers are not taking advantage of the YD pact, foreign carriers have taken over the domestic market, amending and/or convincing government for more routes to expand their operations.

This development has been accelerated by the unfavourable aviation policies being signed by our government with other foreign countries- a policy that grants them (foreign airlines) multiple entry points into our county. Nigeria has BASA with over 60 nations that are not used or reciprocated by Nigerian airlines.

The Goodluck Ebele Jonathan’s administration was most guilty of hurriedly signing bilateral agreements without thinking them through, fuelling insinuations that huge amount of money may have exchanged hands as the foreign airlines had a field day because of the disadvantaged position the local carriers found themselves.

They were helpless and lack the wherewithal to make their voices to be heard. This is detrimental to the growth and development of the domestic arm of the industry. At the rate we are going, the multiple entry point policy, operators maintained would damage indigenous operators.

A former Secretary General of African Airlines Association (AFRAA), Nick Fadugba told New Telegraph that it would be very difficult for the government to rework the policy.

Once you have given away your market in a legally-binding air services agreement, it is difficult to renege on the contract. His words, “How do you tell a foreign airline that you have given, say, 10 frequencies, that you are reducing the number? Even if we do so, do we have local airlines that can readily fill the gap and provide the same efficient and high quality service?

“It has become a big problem for airlines in Nigeria because various Nigerian governments have been very generous in giving traffic rights, concessions, designations and entry points to non-African and African airlines alike. Meanwhile, Nigerian airlines are now left with just three per cent of the air traffic market to and from Nigeria.”

African airlines collectively carry only 20 per cent of the air passenger traffic to and from Africa. Nigeria has the largest economy in Africa as well as the most vibrant air transport market on the continent.

It is hard to rationalise and justify why Nigerian airlines have such a small share of their own market. The fact remains that Nigeria is a signatory to the Abuja Treaty of 2004 under which the Yamoussoukro Decision of 1999, liberalising African skies, is legally binding. Nigeria has no choice than to abide by the treaty.

For airlines in Africa to survive and prosper in today’s world, they need a critical mass of aircraft and air traffic and an optimal route network. For Nigerian airlines, they are small and very weak. Arik Air, to its credit, has most of the ingredients to be effective and efficient.

It has the largest airline fleet in Nigeria, with over 20 modern aircraft, the largest route network and almost certainly the largest revenue turnover. So, the size and scale of an airline’s operations are important. It is very hard to compete against bigger African and international airlines with just a handful of aircraft.