Middle East Needs 3,000 New Commercial Aircraft Over 20 Years

• Airplanes valued as $$685 billion

The Middle East will demand nearly 3,000 new commercial aircraft over the next two decades, valued at $685 billion, as the industry begins to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

That is the projection from Boeing’s 2020 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which predicts that over the next 20 years, passenger traffic growth in the Middle East will increase by an average of 4.3% per year, above the global average of 4% growth per year.

“In recent decades, several airlines in the Middle East have leveraged their geographical position to connect rapidly growing Asian economies and the more mature markets in Europe,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president of Commercial Marketing.

“At the historical crossroads connecting Europe, Africa and Asia, the Middle East and its airlines will remain a critical hub of sixth-freedom passenger flows and cargo throughout the 20-year outlook.”

The Middle East commercial fleet is expected to reach 3,500 by 2039 – more than doubling the current 1,510 airplanes – to address replacement needs and growth, according to the CMO.

In the wide-body segment, Boeing forecasts Middle East demand for 1,280 new passenger airplanes by 2039.

While this reflects challenges to long-haul markets that are both typical to air travel shocks and specifically due to the pandemic’s impact on international travel, the CMO forecasts a recovery to pre-pandemic trends in the medium and long term. The Middle East’s replacement demand is also a growing share of new wide-body airplane demand.

In the near-term, domestic and short-haul markets around the world are expected to recover earlier from pandemic effects. Middle East single-aisle seat capacity more than doubled over the past five years for destinations outside the region.

The CMO projects a near tripling of the single-aisle fleet by 2039 to further serve this growing segment of the market.

Since 2000, Middle East carriers have grown their share of world air cargo traffic from 4% in 1999 to 13% as they rapidly grew their wide-body passenger and freighter fleets. Freighters represent a continued area of opportunity for Middle East airlines with the fleet projected to nearly double from 80 in 2019 to 150 by 2039.

Boeing projects a 20-year opportunity for Middle East commercial services valued at $725 billion, including requirements for supply chain and maintenance, repair and overhaul capability focused on newer airplane technologies and software solutions to reduce operating costs and improve efficiency.

“While aviation has seen periodic demand shocks since the beginning of the jet age, the industry has recovered from these downturns every time as aviation plays an integral role in the global economy,” Hulst added.

“The current market disruption will shape airline fleet strategies long into the future as airlines focus on building versatile fleets that provide future network flexibility, maximising capability while minimising risk and improving efficiency and sustainability.”

Wole Shadare