Four-engine planes fading into extinction

With airline operators abandoning fuel guzzling four-engine airplanes for more efficient models, there is a huge shift from super jumbo jets like the B747 and A380 for medium size editions probably for economic reasons. Wole Shadare writes

End of the road?

Could the end be near for passenger flights on four-engine jets? That’s a question Boeing and Airbus may soon have to answer as sales of their four-engine passenger planes languish at the world’s two biggest airline manufacturers. That Boeing’s humped 747, perhaps the world’s most-recognisable jet and Airbus’ mammoth A380 “superjumbo” jet are struggling to find traction among passenger airlines may come as a surprise. Having a lifespan measured by decades, the most recent models to roll off assembly lines will probably remain in service for the foreseeable future. But the production of the passenger versions of those jets is in limbo amid a seismic shift in aviation industry.

Contrast

Airbus has received 317 orders and none since 2016 for its massive A380. By contrast, its new twin-engine A350 — which first began flying for airlines in 2015 — has racked up nearly 850 orders. An aircraft engineer, who preferred anonymity said: “I would occasionally compare the A380 to the rotund American comedian Rodney Dangerfield, in that his punchline was “I don’t get no respect.”

This seemed to be the airline industry’s attitude; the A380 was one every passenger wanted to fly in, but ultimately, no airline wanted to buy it. Again, it is a sad irony that the A380, a much greater example of European technical and manufacturing wizardry than the Concorde ever was, is being shut down just as the very concept of a united Europe is under assault.

Doomed by economy

But it wasn’t politics that doomed the A380, it was economy. Great products are ultimately supposed to make money, and the A380 never did.

For Boeing, the demise of the jumbo jet has come a little closer after the United States manufacturer announced it would scale back production of its famous 747 to just one plane every two months, with orders having all but disappeared.

The distinctive four-engine plane has fallen from favour since more efficient twin-engine models were developed that could operate on long-haul routes – particularly lucrative transatlantic flights – on a fraction of the fuel.

Boeing had prolonged the life of the 45-year-old design with its latest, more fuel-efficient iteration, the 747-8, whose freight version looked to have particular potential with early sales. But the manufacturer said a stalling air cargo market was killing off demand for the plane.

The rivalry

Competing visions of the future of aviation saw Boeing’s great rival, Airbus, launch an even bigger plane, the A380 superjumbo, a fully double-decker design.

While the A380 has also struggled to sell in the last two years, it has won most of the recent trade in the 747’s patch, the market for giant passenger planes – once seen as essential for major international hubs like Heathrow, where landing slots are at a premium.

Finding success with smaller planess

Boeing has found more success of late in its midsize long-haul planes, such as the 787 Dreamliner, where it is planning to ramp up production.

The cost of producing the 747 has for some time exceeded the revenue it has brought in, and the manufacturer said it would report an accounting charge of $569m in its forthcoming quarterly results to reflect the new reality.

It had already warned that production would slow from 1.3 planes per month to a single unit from March, but now will be halving that rate again from September.

More than 1,500 747s have been sold over four and a half decades and the plane was once known as the queen of the skies by pilots and spotters. But its popularity among airline accountants has plunged in the last 10 years as higher fuel costs and narrower profit margins made it economically unviable on many routes.

Experts’ views

Analysts say advances in engine technology and fuel-efficiency have made twin-engine jets the go-to choice when airlines look to update their passenger fleets.

Patrick Smith, host of the Ask the Pilot website, says economy swung the pendulum — perhaps irreversibly — toward two-engine passenger planes.

“It’s pretty simple. Why do with four what you can do with two? It’s going to be simpler and less expensive,” Smith says.

The A380 had been somewhat of an early success, but when Emirates recently decided to cancel its outstanding orders, Airbus announced that it would cease production of the aircraft after the remaining commitments were delivered.

In recent years, the shift has been toward far more fuel efficient aircraft such as the 787 Dreamliner, which I fly, and the A350.

These aircraft can fly exactly the same routes as safely as their four-engine counterparts, but for a fraction of the fuel. It is a win for both accountants and environmentalists.

With the advances in engine and aircraft reliability since the first trans-Atlantic crossing 100 years ago, regulators have allowed two-engine aircraft to fly farther and farther from the nearest adequate airfield in the event of an engine shut down.

Demand for the big jets has also dwindled as aviation regulations changed, airlines moved away from the hub-and-spoke model for their routes, and jet-engine technology improved — making it safer for aircraft to fly long distances with just two engines. Sadly, even the 747’s freighter business is struggling.

Airbus hasn’t won an airline order for the double-decker jet since it sold Emirates a batch two years ago. Although there are rumours that Japan’s ANA is looking to buy, don’t expect many others to join in.

Last line

These days, Boeing and Airbus are having a hard time finding new buyers for both aircraft. The cost of purchasing such a large craft, combined with the fact that they’re relatively energy inefficient makes them impractical.

Wole Shadare