Experts: Nigeria’s air traffic to hit 31 million by 2030

  • Growth puts pressure on infrastructure that is struggling to cope with demand
Nigeria’s air traffic is expected hit 31 million by 2030 just as traffic in the African continent is expected to rise to 400 million, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
To be able to achieve success and reap from the huge traffic, the country would also need $200billion to tackle Nigeria’s current infrastructure deficit.
A travel consultant, Mr. Tade Ojulari, disclosed these in a chat with Woleshadare.net in Lagos.
He said it was cheery news that Nigeria would hugely benefit from the projected huge traffic but warned that the country needed to begin serious overhauling of its facilities to accommodate it.
The Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had put both domestic and international passenger traffic for 2016 at 15.6 million, which many consider too small for a population of approximately 170 million.
Ojulari said the expected growth would put pressure on infrastructure that is already struggling to cope with demand.
“Runways, terminals, security and baggage systems, air traffic control, and a whole raft of other elements need to be expanded to be ready for the growing number of flyers. It cannot be done by the industry alone. Planning for change requires governments, communities and the industry working together in partnership,” said Ojulari.
IATA last week estimated that air traffic in Nigeria and other Africa countries would increase by 274 million, bringing the total traffic per year to 400 million by 2036.
The global projection by the clearing house for over 280 interests estimated the traffic in Africa to consistently grow by 5.9 per cent over the next 20 years.
The growth rate, though marginal when compared with other continents, promises boom time for prepared airlines on both local and international routes.
IATA regional head of member and external relations for Africa and the Middle East, Adefunke Adeyemi, also stated that while international passenger numbers in Africa should triple to 300 million by 2035, excessive red tape, high costs and lack of air liberalisation remain serious concerns. She disclosed this to delegates at last month’s Aviation Africa 2017 conference in Kigali.
She drew attention to the fact that fragmentation had marred economies of scale, as cooperation between African carriers remains extremely limited. “Only Ethiopia and Kenya have connections to more than half the other countries in Africa,” she said.   
“Airlines need to be profitable to support connectivity.”
Net post-tax profit margins showed gains all over the world except in Latin America in 2015 and in Africa, which saw net profit margins fall around 5 percent in 2015 and 3 percent in 2016.
Net losses for African airlines totaled about $500 million in 2013, but projections for the four years up to the end of 2017 showed annual losses of more than $750 million. Industry EBIT margins hit positive territory in 2010-11, before moving decisively negative in 2012, and projections called for a fall to between 3 and 4 percent in 2015-17.
However, Adeyemi said the right policies for Africa could lead to an extra 35 million passengers compared with baseline forecasts, bringing the total toward 350 million in 2035 and more than tripling the 2015 figure of around 100 million passengers.
Competitiveness affected the ability to deliver value. She said the Seychelles, Cape Verde and South Africa ranked highest on the continent for quality of air transport infrastructure, citing recent World Economic Forum global competitiveness data.
But the Director-General of the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), Capt. Muhtar Usman the reiterated the readiness of the country’s aviation industry to meet the projected boost in air passenger traffic by 2030.
This is as Nigeria has been called upon to take the lead in the continent’s aviation industry in order to help contribute to the development on the continent.
According to Usman, Nigeria within the period would have increased its infrastructure and its regulations, stressing that with this plan, the country would not be left behind.
He said: “In the spirit of ‘No country left behind’ as being professed by our own President of ICAO, Dr. Olmuyiwa Aliu, this workshop has been put in place to ensure that we key in and Nigeria is not left behind. So, in terms of regulation and infrastructure, we want to make sure that we are not left behind.
“I’m sure you are aware of the forthcoming World Aviation Forum, the third one in the series that is coming up in Abuja and the first to be held outside the ICAO headquarters between November 20 and November 22 this year, we want to take advantage of that. We have a plan and we need to implement the plan. So, part of it is the infrastructure and the theme of the conference is ‘Financing Aviation Infrastructure.’
Wole Shadare