Appraising Africa’s air travel opportunities with potential for growth

The aviation industry in Africa presents both significant opportunities and challenges, with the potential for remarkable growth driven by economic development, rising demand for air travel, and the need for better connectivity across the continent, writes WOLE SHADARE

The continent’s aviation industry is poised for growth, due to a rising middle class, increasing international business, and tourism.

Countries with higher Gross Domestic Products (GDPs), such as South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and Egypt, lead the aviation sector, supported by established infrastructure and growing demand for air travel.

Same old story

Africa, as a region, has experienced a growing demand for air travel, driven by a rising middle class, expanding international business relationships, and the increasing importance of tourism.

Despite these favourable factors, the aviation industry in Africa has faced numerous hurdles, including insufficient infrastructure, safety concerns, regulatory inefficiencies, and fragmented air travel networks that often limit intra-African connectivity.

Africa has shown strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, with seat capacity across the continent up year-on-year every week since late March 2021.

The region exceeded pre-pandemic numbers during 2023, and there has been continued growth during 2024.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), air transport supports over 7 million jobs across the African continent and contributes around $60 billion to Africa’s GDP.

However, despite these contributions, its aviation market remains underdeveloped compared to other regions such as Asia and Europe.

The African Union (AU) and various regional organisations have made strides to improve the situation.

For example, the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) is intended to open up the skies and promote cross-border travel and trade. Yet, the full potential of these initiatives has to be realised.

Economic indicators across continental markets

The economic development of a country is one of the most critical drivers for the aviation sector, as a higher GDP typically correlates with greater disposable income, higher demand for air travel, and a more developed infrastructure to support aviation.

The strongest aviation markets in Africa are generally those with the highest GDP and those that have taken steps to improve aviation infrastructure and connectivity.

The weakest markets highlight the vast differences across national borders.

 Ethiopia, standout performer

The African aviation landscape is never dull, and 2024 was no different, as the continent experienced an eclectic blend of highs and lows. But once again, it was in Ethiopia that stood out from the crowd, thanks to the continued strong performance of its national carrier, Ethiopian Airlines.

The airline’s network currently consists of 143 destinations, including 22 within Ethiopia and 67 across Africa, according to data from CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG for the week commencing February 10, 2025.

The airline’s achievements during the year are too numerous to mention, but highlights include the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Boeing for the purchase of up to 20 Boeing 777Xs; the signing of a sustainable aviation fuel production and acquisition agreement with Satarem; the entry of its first A350-1000 into service, and the announcement of plans to construct Africa’s largest airport at Abusera.

In May 2024, Ethiopian Airlines CEO Mesfin Tasew called for the elimination of government interference in African airlines, stating, “Governments must remove their hands from the airlines if they want to see their airlines become successful, independent, self-sufficient in financing, and the like”.

It might be an ambitious wish, but the success of Ethiopian Airlines in contrast to many of its regional competitors is proof that it is a goal worth striving for.

South Africa’s developed aviation sector

South Africa, as the second-largest economy, is home to major international airports like OR Tambo International Airport (Johannesburg) and Cape Town International Airport – but it has been put in the shadow because of the rise.

The country has a highly developed aviation sector, with significant capacity in both international and domestic air travel.

According to the World Bank, South Africa’s GDP was $419 billion in 2023, and the country is a regional hub for air traffic.

Additionally, the airline industry benefits from global airlines and local operators like South African Airways. With continued investment in airports and modern aircraft, South Africa remains the key leader in African aviation.

Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy by GDP

Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy by GDP, standing at approximately $520 billion in 2023.

Nigeria’s aviation sector is experiencing substantial growth, driven by its burgeoning population, expanding middle class, and a strong oil-based economy.

Lagos’ Murtala Muhammed International Airport is a key hub, and there is potential for increased connectivity within the continent.

However, infrastructure issues, fuel supply challenges, and regulatory inefficiencies remain significant barriers to growth.

Kenya, trade and tourism growth

Kenya, with a GDP of around $120 billion, has experienced steady growth in air traffic.

Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport is one of Africa’s busiest airports, with an expanding role as a regional hub for both passengers and cargo.

Kenya Airways, the national carrier, plays a pivotal role in connecting East Africa to the rest of the world.

The rise in regional trade and tourism is expected to continue driving the growth of Kenya’s aviation sector.

 Egypt’s most robust aviation sectors

Egypt, with a GDP of $400 billion in 2023, has one of the most robust aviation sectors in North Africa.

Cairo International Airport is a major regional hub, with strong demand from the tourism sector, as well as international trade.

The expansion of EgyptAir’s network and investment in infrastructure projects, like the new terminal at Cairo Airport, indicate that the country has the potential to expand its aviation market significantly.

Chad, one of Africa’s smallest economies

Chad is one of Africa’s smallest economies, with a GDP of approximately $12 billion in 2023.

The aviation sector here is underdeveloped, largely due to limited infrastructure, political instability, and a lack of investment.

Although the country is geographically important for regional connectivity, it has not experienced the level of growth in air travel compared to its larger neighbours.

Mozambique faces significant challenges aviation sector

With a GDP of around $20 billion, Mozambique faces significant challenges in its aviation sector.

The country’s airports are limited in capacity, and air travel is constrained by underdeveloped domestic infrastructure and a reliance on a few international flights.

While there is potential for growth in the tourism and cargo sectors, investments in infrastructure and regional connectivity in Mozambique are crucial.

Sierra Leone’s political instability, national airline absence

Sierra Leone is among the smaller economies in Africa, with a GDP of approximately $5 billion in 2023.

The country’s aviation sector is underdeveloped, with limited domestic services and minimal regional connectivity.

Political instability, underdeveloped airports, and the absence of a national airline contribute to the challenges.

Opportunities for growth

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which came into force in 2021, is one of the most significant drivers for the growth of aviation across the continent. This agreement aims to reduce trade barriers and promote the free movement of goods and services within Africa.

As trade between African nations increases, the demand for efficient transportation, particularly air travel, will grow. Airlines operating in Africa stand to benefit greatly from a more integrated and unified market.

A critical opportunity for the development of aviation in Africa also lies in the modernisation and expansion of airport infrastructure.

Major cities, such as Addis Ababa, Nairobi, Johannesburg, Cairo, and Lagos, are experiencing airport expansions, but many other regions remain underserved.

Last line

As the African economy continues to grow and integrate, aviation will undoubtedly play an increasingly important role in promoting economic development and enhancing connectivity across the continent. How big a role will remain dependent on how the industry embraces its need to change?

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