Aircraft scarcity, Nigerian airlines’ biggest challenge-Okonkwo

• ·          Unfulfilled orders for new aircraft hit 17,000 planes- IATA
• ·          Fleet depletion worsens carriers’ operations

The chairman of United Nigeria Airlines, Prof. Obiora Okonkwo said scarcity of aircraft is the biggest problem Nigerian carriers face.

He noted that the scarcity of aircraft was made possible by a backlog of aircraft that were supposed to have been delivered by the major aircraft makers, Boeing and Airbus but which were delayed as a result of Covid.

 The problem is more pronounced with African airlines and especially Nigeria, which, although it has a robust aviation market but is currently hit by a dearth of aircraft with a lack of capacity to meet growing demand.

The global problem, which has hit Nigerian carriers the hardest, has led to a shortage of aircraft in the fleet of virtually all the airlines; this situation has affected the schedule integrity of many Nigerian carriers.

Airlines are indeed facing a severe supply chain crisis, which is expected to persist into 2026. This crisis is impacting aircraft deliveries, raising costs, and potentially limiting growth within the industry.

The Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) understands the predicaments faced by the country’s airlines and recently advised Air Peace to cut down its schedules because of the depletion of aircraft in its fleet. The airline’s five Embraer 195-E2 aircraft, acquired less than four years ago, are all grounded because of engine flaws from the manufacturer.

Many aircraft belonging to the airline are said to have been ferried overseas and have no date of return to service. This is not limited to Air Peace alone. Virtually all the airlines are bleeding but experts said that must not be an excuse for shoddy service delivery.

Speaking to the media when United Nigeria Airlines signed a new distribution agreement with Sabre Corporation at the weekend in an agreement that marks the airline’s first collaboration with a global distribution technology partner, enabling it to distribute its product via Sabre’s expansive global marketplace, Okonkwo said, “The biggest challenge we have now is that there is a scarcity of aircraft worldwide. As you may have known from the backlog of COVID-19, coming out of the COVID-19 backlog, extended production time for new aircraft.”

 He disclosed that the problem was equally compounded by the grounding of Boeing MAX over technical issues and further worsened by the engine issue of Embraer E2.

 “So with all those things, normally for us, it is only when the new aircraft are manufactured and delivered to the bigger operators or bigger lessors. They will now replace it with the old ones. And then you have aircraft in the market. So those people who had signed off six years, seven years, aircraft leases that were supposed to expire last year, they extended it.”

 “So, we know that there are a whole lot of lessors who are happy to do business with Nigeria. But the aircraft they are expecting to come back to their inventory is still being held on. So this is what we are going through. You will find legacy operators who ordinarily wouldn’t operate ACMI, even struggling with us, with ACMI. So this has made the cost of everything very, very high.”

 He expressed happiness with the progress they have made with the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Mr. Festus Keyamo over some of the Federal Government’s policies that have helped the airlines to stay afloat.

 “We are happy with the progress we have made with the minister. We hope that very soon we will start reaping the full benefit of that effort. But for us, the United Nigeria, it’s not stopping us. The aircraft we are expecting is both a lease and an outright purchase.”

Meanwhile the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said in 2025, deliveries are forecast to rise to 1,802, well below earlier expectations for 2,293 deliveries, with further downward revisions in 2025 widely seen as quite possible.

The backlog (cumulative number of unfulfilled orders) for new aircraft has reached 17,000 planes, a record high. At present delivery rates, this would take 14 years to fulfil, double the six-year average backlog for the 2013-2019 period. However, the waiting time is expected to shorten as delivery rates increase.

The number of “parked” aircraft is 14% (approximately 5,000 aircraft) of the total fleet (35,166 as at December 2024, including Russian-built aircraft). While this has improved recently, parked aircraft remain 4 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels (equivalent to some 1,600 aircraft).  Of these, 700 (2% of the global fleet) are parked for engine inspections. We expect this situation to persist into 2025.

The Director-General of IATA, Willie Walsh admitted that supply chain issues are frustrating every airline with a triple whammy on revenues, costs, and environmental performance, adding that load factors are at record highs and there is no doubt that if airlines had more aircraft they could be profitably deployed, with airlines’ revenues being compromised.

“Meanwhile, the aging fleet that airlines are using has higher maintenance costs, burns more fuel, and takes more capital to keep it flying. And, on top of this, leasing rates have risen more than interest rates as competition among airlines intensified the scramble to find every way possible to expand capacity. This is a time when airlines need to be fixing their battered post-pandemic balance sheets, but progress is effectively capped by supply chain issues that manufacturers need to resolve,” said Walsh.

Specifically, IATA noted that, persistent supply chain issues at least partially responsible for two negative developments such as fuel efficiency (excluding the impact of load factors) was unchanged between 2023 and 2024 at 0.23 litres/100 available tonne kilometers (ATK).

Wole Shadare