Africa’s aviation market to grow to 400 million passengers by 2036– IATA
- China, US, India, Indonesia, Turkey top list
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has projected that Africa would record 5.9 per cent annual growth, equating to an additional 274 million passengers a year by 2036, for a total market of 400 million passengers.
This is coming as the clearing house for global airlines also gave a forecast and expects 7.8 billion passengers to travel in 2036, a near doubling of the four billion air travellers expected to fly this year.
The five fastest-growing markets in terms of annual additional passengers in 2036 compared to 2016 will be China (921 million new passengers for a total of 1.5 billion), US (401 million new passengers for a total of 1.1 billion), India (337 million new passengers for a total of 478 million), Indonesia (235 million new passengers for a total of 355 million), Turkey (119 million new passengers for a total of 196 million).
IATA’s prediction is based on a 3.6 per cent average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) noted in the release of the latest update to the association’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast.
“All indicators lead to growing demand for global connectivity. The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It’s fantastic news for innovation and prosperity, which is driven by air links. It is also a huge challenge for governments and industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
According to the group, the biggest driver of demand will be the Asia-Pacific region.
The region will be the source of more than half the new passengers over the next two decades. The point at which China will displace the United States as the world’s largest aviation market (defined as traffic to, from and within the country) has moved two years closer since last year’s forecast.
“We now anticipate this will occur around 2022, through a combination of slightly faster Chinese growth and slightly reduced growth in the US. The UK will fall to fifth place, surpassed by India in 2025, and Indonesia in 2030. Thailand and Turkey will enter the top ten largest markets, while France and Italy will fall in the rankings to 11th and 12th respectively”, de Juniac added.
A number of risks to the forecast have been identified. Maximizing the potential benefits of aviation growth will depend on current levels of trade liberalization and visa facilitation being maintained.
If trade protectionism and travel restrictions are put in place, the benefits of air connectivity will decline as growth could slow to 2.7 per cent, meaning 1.1 billion fewer passenger journeys annually in 2036.
Conversely, if moves towards liberalization increase, annual growth could be more than two percentage points faster, leading to a tripling in passengers over the next 20 years.
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