2016: Q4 aviation passenger traffic projected to dip
There are indications that the country’s aviation travelling public may witness a complete cycle of sharp traffic decline this year if feelers from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which is expected to make public its verdict next month, is anything to go by.
The report could see a decline following the trend of the reports of NBS for first and second quarters of 2016. NBS’s reports for first quarter showed total aviation passenger traffic or number of passengers who travelled through Nigerian airports as 3,549,360, representing a decline of 261,398 passengers or 6.9 per cent relative to fourth quarter (Q4) 2015, but higher than the 3,411,683 passengers recorded in Q1 2015.
According to the statistical agency, Q2, however, recorded a quarterly decrease of 0.5 per cent in passenger traffic and a year-on-year increase of 0.2 per cent, resulting in a total of 3,532,775 passengers.
According to the Nigerian Aviation Sector Summary Report: Q1-Q2 2016 released at the weekend by NBS, the Murtala Muhammed Airport (MMA) in Lagos recorded the most activity in the sector, accounting for 36.6 per cent and 70.3 per cent of domestic and international passengers respectively, while cargo and mail movement accounted for 91.8 per cent and 58.8 per cent respectively.
It noted that in both quarters of the year, domestic travel recorded smaller growth rates than international travel, compared to the previous quarters as well as corresponding quarters of the previous year. It further stated that there were 2,475,448 domestic passengers in Q1 and 2,411,251 in Q2, representing quarterly declines of 9.1 per cent and 2.6 per cent respectively.
Year on year, this represents an increase of 2.1 per cent and a decline of 2.4 per cent in Q1 and Q2 respectively. By comparison, international passenger numbers declined by only 1.2 per cent in Q1 to reach 1,073,912 passengers before increasing by 4.4 per cent in Q2 to reach 1,121,524 passengers, the NBS further stated.
“Year on year, international passenger numbers grew in both quarters by 8.9 per cent in the first and 6.4 per cent in the second,” it added.
According to the report, at the domestic front, MMA remained the busiest airport in Q1 with 886,869 passengers travelling through and 903,605 passengers in Q2.
This represents 35.8 per cent and 37.5 per cent of total domestic passenger traffic for the respective periods and a slight decline in the share relative to 2015, when MMA domestic accounts for 37 per cent and 37.9 per cent in both quarters.
On the other hand, the Abuja domestic airport, which is the second largest in terms of passenger traffic, increased its share of passenger travel relative to Q1, 2015, although the share declined slightly relative to Q2, 2015.
Also on the international front, MMA accounted for the largest share of international passengers with 72.1 per cent and 68.6 per cent of total traffic in Q1 and Q2, 2016. Abuja International Airport was the second busiest with 220,592 passengers in Q1 and 268,638 in Q2, representing a share of 20.5 per cent and 24 per cent respectively.
Aviation expert and former Assistant Secretary-General of Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON), Mohammed Tukur, attributed the dip in traffic to recession, saying the figures are expected.
He opined that the current difficulties people are experiencing occasioned by recession will ease off in the new year, stressing that whatever the challenge the country is witnessing now is not going to be protracted. He anticipated that the recession would begin to ease by next year.
“Nigeria is in recession and we expect to witness low passenger traffic because of the pressure on the purchasing power. So, people don’t just travel now; there must be an important reason before you travel and that travel must have good returns.
Traffic has depleted at the major airports and this has affected restaurants and some of them are closing,” he added.
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